Athletes Shouldn’t Look Like Athletes
I read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, Skin in the Game, several years ago and recently reread it. It was excellent and there was one idea, in particular, that relates to sports.
Taleb describes a situation where there are 2 different surgeons.
One “…wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build, delicate hands, measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is silver and well combed.” This guy also has his Ivy League diplomas on the wall in his office.
The other one “looks like a butcher; he is overweight, with large hands, uncouth speech, and an unkempt appearance. His shirt is dangling from the back.” This second guy doesn’t have diplomas on the wall because they probably aren’t that impressive.
Think for a minute which one of these guys you would want performing surgery on you…
Taleb surprisingly states that he would rather have the second guy, “the butcher”, as his surgeon. His reasoning is that the only way “the butcher” gets that surgeon job is if he is legitimately very good at it. He had to overcome all the negative perceptions due to his appearance and education level.
The guy who “looks the part” might be good, too, but he could also be average or even bad and still got the job just because he looks how a surgeon usually looks. Given that both are certified surgeons, ironically, the one who doesn’t look like a surgeon has a higher chance of being the better one.
You see something similar elsewhere, including in professional sports.
Consider a hypothetical scenario where you are forming a team. You have the choice between 2 different players. Player 1 is 5’10’’and went undrafted while Player 2 is 6’4’’ and was drafted. You are told that both play in the NHL. If this was the only information you were given and you wanted to pick the better player for your team, who are you taking?
You should pick Player 1.
Why? Because Player 1 had to overcome his short stature and lack of draft pedigree to play at the NHL level. He doesn’t “look the part” so there is a solid chance that he is very good in order to overcome that bias against him.
Are there any short or undrafted NHL players who are bad? Not really. Only average and, more often, good or great ones. That is because the only undersized, undrafted ones who make it that far and stick are the good ones.
Among skaters listed 5’10’’ and shorter on NHL.com who played >41 games in 2018-2019 are (in order of games played): Kevin Fiala, Alex DeBrincat, Jared Spurgeon, Jonathan Marchessault, Brendan Gallagher, Max Domi, Samuel Girard, Mathieu Perreault, Clayton Keller, Ryan Ellis, Travis Konecny, Patrick Kane, Derek Ryan, Tyler Johnson, Cam Atkinson, Yanni Gourde, Tomas Tatar, Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, Andrew Cogliano, Troy Stecher, Will Butcher, Alexander Kerfoot, Tyler Motte, Andreas Johnsson, Vinnie Hinostroza, Noel Acciari, Kris Russell, Victor Mete, Jaden Schwartz, Josh Archibald, Matt Grzelcyk, Brian Gibbons, Torey Krug, Sven Andrighetto, Jordan Weal, Viktor Arvidsson, Paul Byron, JT Brown, Drake Caggiula, Gabriel Bourque, Vincent Trocheck, Austin Czarnik, Rocco Grimaldi, Ryan Callahan, Tyler Ennis, Brett Seney, Jesper Bratt, Denis Malgin, Sami Vatanen, Mats Zuccarello, Conor Garland, Phil Varone, Andrew Mangiapane, and Brad Hunt.
Lots of above average and even star level players in this group despite not looking like traditional athletes for a contact sport.
Among undrafted skaters who played 41 or more games in 2018-2019 are Alex Iafallo, David Kampf, Neal Pionk, Drake Caggiula, Austin Czarnik, Michal Kempny, Carter Rowney, Troy Stecher, Nikita Zaitsev, Noel Acciari, Ryan Carpenter, Yanni Gourde, Garnet Hathaway, Tomas Nosek, Artemi Panarin, Evan Rodrigues, Derek Ryan, Conor Sheary, Brandon Tanev, Frank Vatrano, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Barclay Goodrow, Melker Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Jordan Oesterle, Tim Schaller, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Taylor Fedun, Christian Folin, Brian Gibbons, Luke Glendening, Brad Hunt, Michael Raffl, Nate Schmidt, Danny DeKeyser, Matt Irwin, Tyler Johnson, Antoine Roussel, Jordie Benn, J. T. Brown, Brenden Dillon, Torey Krug, Nick Holden, Christopher Tanev, Mats Zuccarello, Tyler Bozak, Micheal Haley, Jay Beagle, Ben Lovejoy, Dan Girardi, Andy Greene, Mark Giordano, Chris Kunitz.
The undrafted group also has a surprising amount of above average and star level players considering they were previously passed over.
(Artemi Panarin is an interesting case. He’s listed at 5’11’’ and went undrafted but is a legitimate superstar.)
This is just for 2018-19 and a similar procedure can be done throughout NHL history.
Guys who are short and/or undrafted (oftentimes being short contributes to being undrafted) never make it to the NHL or get weeded out quickly without being given much of a chance.
Therefore, if a guy is both short and undrafted but continues playing at the level for a long time then there is a higher likelihood that the player is above average or elite compared to picking a random drafted/more normal athlete-sized player. Martin St. Louis is the most famous case of this class of both short and undrafted players.
Among the average-sized and tall players who are drafted, you get the full array of good, average, and bad.
I’m sure this finding applies to other sports and different areas of life as well. As an anecdote, my favorite professor from college didn’t look like a typical professor at all.
Surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons and professional athletes shouldn’t look like professional athletes.