2020-2021 Fantasy Hockey Draft Recap
It didn’t start out great. I had the 9th pick in the 1st Round and there were 8 guys whom I had penned in for that spot. All 8 went before I got a chance. My hope was that one of Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, or Mitch Marner would slide to 9th, but it didn’t happen. The backup plans were (1.9) C John Tavares and Sidney Crosby, older players compared to most of the guys who went before them but still elite. I went with Tavares for 3 main reasons. Auston Mathews and Marner were gone and I wanted to ensure I got a piece of the Maple Leafs high-scoring action. Also, the North (Canadian) Division figures to be the highest scoring of the 4 divisions given the teams involved. Finally, Crosby had some injury problems last season while Tavares was mostly healthy. He should be a lock for 30 goals and 250 shots (per 82 games), although an area of concern is that he is currently listed on PP2 as new entrants Joe Thornton and Wayne Simmonds are on PP1. That shouldn’t last.
The next pick came around quick and it was between Jake Guentzel and (2.4) RW/C Patrick Kane. This was the hardest decision of the night. It’s almost a boring pick at this point as everyone rushes out for the newer 20-something rather than the 32-year-old Kane. However, he seems to be getting better with age. His 3 best points per game seasons have occurred in the last 5 seasons and he has played every single game but one during that time. Also, he plays 1-2 more minutes per game under Jeremy Colliton compared to Joel Quenneville. The lone issue with Kane that gave me long pause (literally made pick with seconds left) is the surrounding talent continues to disappear around him. The Blackhawks figure to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league through the combination of skaters (particularly Kane, himself) and goalies. They also lost Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach up front. They will probably be involved in a lot of shootouts where it’s up to Kane to keep them in it. He’s proven he can rack up points no matter what’s going on around him.
Surprisingly, (3.9) LW/RW Jake Guentzel came back around as others were scooping up goalies. Very easy pick here as I was seriously considering him 17 picks prior. Guentzel should be back to full strength and attached to Crosby’s hip after the freak injury last season. He gives me Crosby exposure, a player I was seriously considering in the 1st Round. He’s scored at about a 40 goal per 82 game pace the last 2 seasons. He’s not a huge volume shooter and relies a little more on accuracy (16.2% career shooter, higher than Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrik Laine and just behind Steven Stamkos). His true talent might be lower than that, but he still warrants a 3rd round selection given his talent level, age, and role with the Penguins. The first 3 rounds went a little differently than expected, but it should come out okay.
(4.4) D Dougie Hamilton was a guy I was able to get in the 10th round last year, a massive steal considering he was on his way to Norris Trophy consideration until a brutal leg injury 47 games in. Compare to the 4 other defensemen picked in the 4th Round: Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi, and Brent Burns. There’s at least a case that Hamilton could be the best of the group in a Fantasy context considering his goals, shots, and hits totals along with teammate quality. The cat’s out of the bag for how good Hamilton is and here’s to hoping he has a full, healthy season and continues what he started in 2019-2020.
Back to the well on another guy I had tremendous success stealing late (12th Round) last season but had to pay up for this year like Hamilton. (5.9) LW Max Pacioretty returned to his old scoring ways last season as his linemate Mark Stone was a huge help in winning pucks and getting them into the offensive zone with possession. At that point, Pacioretty started firing away and returned to over 30 goals and 300 shots on goal. One slight drawback with the Golden Knights is that they really spread out the ice time, including on the powerplay. Pacioretty played just 2:27 per game with the man advantage (tied for 149th) last season. Hopefully it’s not a case of falling too much in love with a player who did well for me in the past.
(6.4) D Rasmus Dahlin was a guy I targeted last year after his strong rookie showing but was unable to get. After missing out on Jack Eichel in the 1st Round, I didn’t want to start guessing at some uncertainties surrounding Buffalo’s other forwards. How will Taylor Hall mesh with Eichel? Can Victor Olofsson sustain his 15.7% SH% from his breakout 2019-2020? Is Jeff Skinner now a 4th liner making $9M a year? Instead, I grabbed Dahlin who will reap the rewards from whatever happens in front of him. There is no doubt that he will receive top 4 minutes and man the top powerplay unit. There’s only been 67 defensemen to play in the NHL at 18 years of age which Dahlin did in 2018-2019. The trajectory continues to point straight up as he gets more experience in the league and enters his prime.
I ended up going back-to-back with defenseman and snagged (7.9) D Neal Pionk of the Jets. Pionk was a revelation for the Jets last season after their blueline was seriously decimated before that. As a righthanded shot (like former Jets D Dustin Byfuglien and unlike current Jets D Josh Morrissey), he fits perfectly on the Jets’ powerplay considering their other personnel. They usually run it from the right flank with playmaker Blake Wheeler distributing to Mark Scheifele in the middle, Patrik Laine on the left flank, and Pionk up top. All of these skaters are righties. Pionk has the option to one-time the puck from the point or slide it over to Laine who has one of the best shots in the game. Pionk should get a boatload of assists this way like he did last season.
Continuing to round out the forward group with the selection of (8.4) C/LW Brayden Schenn who is a natural center but will flex out to the wing to play with Ryan O’Reilly. He also returns to PP1 where he generated a lot of his production last season. That unit is missing Vladimir Tarasenko but adds two new faces in Torey Krug and Mike Hoffman which should be a net boon. There’s likely to be some regression from his career high 18.1% SH%, but as a durable skater with multi-position eligibility and solid category coverage (he’ll rack up over 100 hits per 82 games), the floor is fairly secure.
I love (9.9) C Sean Monahan as a buy low pick. His scoring (along with running mate Johnny Gaudreau) dried up last year. He was done in by some poor percentages (personally shot a career low 13.3% which happens). More concerning is that the line struggled to control play compared to how well they did in the past. The hope is that it was just a fluke season and they will get back to controlling ~54% of the shots and scoring at a true 1st line clip. There was some talk of splitting the two up, but I am skeptical that actually happens unless they continue to really struggle. There’s a very good chance that this 9th Round pick turns in 3rd or 4th Round value if he regains his 2018-2019 form.
(10.4) D Tyson Barrie is a great powerplay quarterback formerly with the Avalanche and Maple Leafs and now on a team that had the best powerplay last season with the Hart Trophy winner (Leon Draisaitl) and Connor McDavid, the best offensive player in the world. The Oilers signed Barrie specifically for this role with Oscar Klefbom out. What’s not to like? Barrie should have a field day here and finish among the league leaders in powerplay points for defenseman.
A sneaky little pick here with (11.9) LW/RW Ondrej Palat of the defending champion Lightning. Palat will play on the top line with Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos. More importantly, he will be the net-front on the 1st powerplay with Nikita Kucherov injured for the year. He hasn’t played much powerplay in the past with all the talent the Lightning have (just 1:19 last season) so that’s where the upside lies. Palat’s been a quality middle-6 winger for Tampa Bay for a long time. Look for him to have his best offensive season (on a rate basis, obviously) due to more opportunity after the Kucherov injury.
I got Barrie two picks prior, so I might as well also get the guy he was traded for before last season, (12.4) C Nazem Kadri. He shoots a lot and is slated to play the bumper role on the top Avalanche powerplay. The Avalanche are an inner-circle Cup contender due to both their top-end talent and incredible depth such as having Kadri on their 2nd line. He’s historically been great at drawing penalties which will grant the powerplay more opportunities.
The first goalie for my team, (13.9) G Ilya Sorokin, is an off-brand pick since I typically don’t like to go with highly touted rookies or unproven players, especially among goalies who are volatile to begin with. It’s an upside play as I waited a while, as usual, to start grabbing goalies. Sorokin was the top KHL goalie and is in a nice spot with an excellent defensive Islanders team. Semyon Varlamov isn’t going anywhere but the two Russian goalies should form a nice tandem situation.
(14.4) G James Reimer is a slightly safer pick to offset the somewhat high risk/high reward nature of the previous goalie selected. Reimer is nothing special and he’s nominally the backup in Carolina. He should approximately split starts with Petr Mrazek, though, and provide wins and decent ratios considering his history of performance and the quality of the Hurricanes skater group. He’s been a 50/50 goalie for most of his career (most starts in a season was 42 with Florida in 2017-2018) so he has long been accustomed to this type of deployment.
(15.9) C Jack Hughes “Buy when there’s blood in the streets.” There’s no way around it. Hughes’ rookie season was a disappointment. However, just the fact that he played in the NHL at 18 years of age is a huge achievement. He went in the 10th Round of our draft last season and produced no value. Now he goes 5 rounds later and has every chance to produce 5th Round value. That’s how these things go: owners buy when the player is hot and sell when the player is cold when it often pays to do the opposite. He’s going to play at the top of the lineup, figures to develop drastically from 18 to 19, and is highly unlikely to shoot 5.7% or have a 5.0% on-ice shooting percentage (even strength) again like last year. You could do much worse than an upside play of Hughes as the 4C as he could have the reverse of the so-called Sophomore Slump. I have 4 of the 14 1st overall picks selected since 2007 (Kane, Tavares, Dahlin, and Hughes).
(16.4) D Mathew Dumba is part of a great defensive group in Minnesota who is coming off a career low shooting percentage (by far) of 3.6% despite continuing to pepper the net (2.42 shots per game) with a great right-handed shot. He had scored double digit goals in the previous 4 seasons so look for his shooting percentage to jump back up to around 8% and Dumba to get back to that scoring level. There have been some trade rumblings over Dumba the past few seasons. Maybe some team adds him to install as the lone PP1 option (right now he usually shares duties as Minnesota still runs a 3F2D setup). That would be a potential catalyst to unlock more value. As is, he should register a steady diet of shots and hits and the goals should return.
After having the other Coyotes’ goalie the past 2 seasons, Darcy Kuemper, I turn to (17.9) G Antti Raanta. He is listed as the backup but, with the compressed schedule, should receive a decent serving of starts. If not, and as with the Sorokin and Reimer selections, it will be mentally very easy to drop these goalies due to picking them late in the draft. That feature is especially pertinent this year as there’s really no time to play around with just a 56 game schedule. If these guys aren’t getting enough starts (after all, they are all listed as the backup) or aren’t performing, then it’s paramount to look at free agents who inevitably break out or run some type of streaming setup. The second option requires the skater group to be near perfect since there are only 3 transactions a week.
(18.4) LW/RW Anthony Duclair It was my final pick of the draft, but it might be my favorite. Duclair has bounced around the league as the Panthers represent his 6th different team in his 7th NHL season. He’s shown some propensity to score and is still just 25. The concern has always been in his off-the-puck play. He is slated to play on a first line with Aleksander Barkov. Jonathan Huberdeau will start on the 2nd line, but will be on the 1st powerplay along with Duclair. Sometimes these things can be ephemeral as the player runs dry and is immediately dropped to the bottom 6 or off the roster. Other times, it clicks and the player puts in a career year. At the least, Duclair has a decent chance to retain his PP1 spot where defensive ability is less of an issue. A great run of goal scoring from Duclair might enable me to trade him (or another winger) for a more stable goalie option if necessary. Duclair is precisely the type of high variance dart throw to make in the very late rounds of a draft.
Recap: It’s going to be a weird season due to the shortened schedule, long layoff for some teams/players, looming potential that players gets hit with Covid, etc. I was considering stacking more variance on top of these factors by going after highly-touted rookies, drafting high-end goalies early, etc., but decided to play it straight up. I’m less certain that the top 2 picks (Tavares and Kane) can carry me like Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel did last year, but I think the remainder of the draft makes up for it. I particularly like the defensive group as they all play PP1, something I haven’t always had in previous years. There are 4 Center-onlys, but 5 of the other 6 forwards have multi-position eligibility. As always, the skater group should be mostly dominant while the goalie group is very much unsettled.
Max Pacioretty – John Tavares – Patrick Kane
Jake Guentzel – Sean Monahan – Ondrej Palat
Brayden Schenn – Nazem Kadri – Anthony Duclair
Jack Hughes
Rasmus Dahlin – Dougie Hamilton
Neal Pionk – Tyson Barrie
Mathew Dumba
Ilya Sorokin
James Reimer
Antti Raanta